The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rwanda v Uganda

Kickoff: 2026-09-17 07:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rwanda (Local)

Prediction 18.57%5.39fair odd
EV +6.76%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +1.42%
Growth +0.096%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.42%18.57%18.57%18.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.355.255.7520.00%18.69%19.05%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Uganda (Visit)

Prediction 81.43%1.23fair odd
EV -7.17%
Edge -6.29%
Kelly -51.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.43%81.43%81.43%83.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.141.141.1488.50%87.87%87.72%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rwanda (Local): 18.57%; Uganda (Visit): 81.43%. For Rwanda (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.39. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.76%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV +6.76%E +1.18%K +1.42%G +0.096%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -7.98%E -7.06%K -61.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 06:25
Paddy Power🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +2.12%E +0.385%K +0.471%G +0.010%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -7.17%E -6.29%K -51.19%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 07:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -2.52%E -0.481%K -0.594%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -7.17%E -6.29%K -51.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-17 07:25
Neds🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -2.52%E -0.481%K -0.594%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -7.17%E -6.29%K -51.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-17 07:24
Betway🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -7.17%E -1.43%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.17%E -6.29%K -51.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-17 07:16
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54%1.1%2026-09-17 07:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54%1.1%2026-09-17 07:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54%1.1%2026-09-17 07:25