The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Romania v Bulgaria

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 06:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Romania (Local)

Prediction 83.51%1.20fair odd
EV -4.80%
Edge -4.21%
Kelly -34.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.57%83.78%83.51%86.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.111.111.1491.74%89.84%90.09%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bulgaria (Visit)

Prediction 16.49%6.06fair odd
EV +15.42%
Edge +2.20%
Kelly +2.57%
Growth +0.396%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.47%16.22%16.49%18.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.086.507.0020.00%16.46%15.38%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Romania (Local): 83.51%; Bulgaria (Visit): 16.49%. For Bulgaria (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.06. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -8.97%E -8.23%K -99.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +15.42%E +2.20%K +2.57%G +0.396%6.0%2026-05-09 16:50
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -7.30%E -6.58%K -66.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +7.17%E +1.10%K +1.30%G +0.094%5.5%2026-05-09 16:45
GTbets🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -7.30%E -6.58%K -66.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +7.17%E +1.10%K +1.30%G +0.094%5.5%2026-05-09 19:30
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -8.14%E -7.40%K -81.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +7.17%E +1.10%K +1.30%G +0.094%6.3%2026-05-09 16:39
Neds🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -8.14%E -7.40%K -81.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +7.17%E +1.10%K +1.30%G +0.094%6.3%2026-05-09 16:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -8.14%E -7.40%K -81.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +7.17%E +1.10%K +1.30%G +0.094%6.3%2026-05-09 16:39
Everygame🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -8.14%E -7.40%K -81.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +7.17%E +1.10%K +1.30%G +0.094%6.3%2026-05-10 05:54
Bet Right🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.80%E -4.21%K -34.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.19%E -0.903%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 05:29
Betway🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.94%EV -8.14%E -7.40%K -81.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.06%EV -5.19%E -0.903%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 22:34
TAB🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.80%E -4.21%K -34.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -9.31%E -1.69%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 05:32
Betr (AU)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.63%E -4.98%K -43.32%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -9.31%E -1.69%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-10 05:29
BoyleSports🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.47%E -5.77%K -53.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -9.31%E -1.69%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 18:30
Bet Victor🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -5.63%E -4.98%K -43.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -17.56%E -3.51%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 05:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.33%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67%1.6%2026-05-10 05:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.33%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67%1.6%2026-05-10 05:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.33%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67%1.6%2026-05-10 05:54