The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Romania v Bulgaria

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 07:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Romania (Local)

Prediction 77.92%1.28fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -3.38%
Kelly -18.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.47%77.92%77.92%81.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.191.191.2386.21%83.82%84.03%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bulgaria (Visit)

Prediction 22.08%4.53fair odd
EV +15.93%
Edge +3.03%
Kelly +3.75%
Growth +0.597%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.10%22.08%22.08%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.484.425.2525.64%22.33%22.65%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Romania (Local): 77.92%; Bulgaria (Visit): 22.08%. For Bulgaria (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.53. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.93%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -9.62%E -8.29%K -60.10%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +15.93%E +3.03%K +3.75%G +0.597%5.3%2026-05-08 19:54
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -8.84%E -7.55%K -51.98%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +10.41%E +2.08%K +2.60%G +0.271%5.5%2026-05-08 19:53
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -8.06%E -6.83%K -44.76%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV +1.58%E +0.343%K +0.438%G +0.007%6.5%2026-05-08 19:54
Neds🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -8.06%E -6.83%K -44.76%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV +1.58%E +0.343%K +0.438%G +0.007%6.5%2026-05-08 19:54
Betway🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.84%E -7.55%K -51.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -0.630%E -0.140%K -0.180%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-08 23:49
GTbets🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.50%E -5.42%K -32.49%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -4.38%E -1.01%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-08 19:53
Bet Right🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -4.16%E -3.38%K -18.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -6.15%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-08 19:54
TAB🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.94%E -4.05%K -22.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.25%E -1.73%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-08 19:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -4.94%E -4.05%K -22.46%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -8.36%E -2.01%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-08 19:54
Bet Victor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.47%EV -6.50%E -5.42%K -32.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -13.88%E -3.56%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-09 06:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 63.58%2.06I 48.54%NM 36.42%33.3%2026-05-09 05:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 63.58%2.06I 48.54%NM 36.42%33.3%2026-05-09 05:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 63.98%2.06I 48.54%NM 36.02%34.8%2026-05-09 06:54