The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Romania v Australia

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 07:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Romania (Local)

Prediction 42.01%2.38fair odd
EV -0.025%
Edge -0.011%
Kelly -0.018%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.13%42.01%42.01%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.172.102.3847.62%46.11%47.62%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Australia (Visit)

Prediction 57.99%1.72fair odd
EV +0.329%
Edge +0.190%
Kelly +0.451%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%57.99%57.99%60.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.681.721.7365.36%59.68%58.14%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Romania (Local): 42.01%; Australia (Visit): 57.99%. For Australia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.72. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.73, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.329%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -11.79%E -5.61%K -10.72%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV +0.329%E +0.190%K +0.451%G +0.001%5.4%2026-07-26 06:44
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -11.79%E -5.61%K -10.72%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -0.251%E -0.146%K -0.348%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 06:44
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -11.79%E -5.61%K -10.72%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -0.251%E -0.146%K -0.348%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 06:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -11.79%E -5.61%K -10.72%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -0.251%E -0.146%K -0.348%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 06:45
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -11.79%E -5.61%K -10.72%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -0.831%E -0.486%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-26 06:44
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.39%E -1.47%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.21%E -4.51%K -12.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 06:35
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -0.025%E -0.011%K -0.018%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -11.27%E -7.37%K -21.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-26 06:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.13%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.87%1.4%2026-07-26 06:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.32%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.68%1.7%2026-07-26 06:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.36%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.64%2.4%2026-07-26 06:55

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