The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Portugal v Norway

Kickoff: 2026-04-08 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Portugal (Local)

Prediction 64.79%1.54fair odd
EV -4.76%
Edge -3.24%
Kelly -10.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.88%64.79%64.79%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.451.441.4769.93%68.97%69.20%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Norway (Visit)

Prediction 35.21%2.84fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.21%35.21%35.21%36.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.672.662.7538.46%37.45%37.59%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Portugal (Local): 64.79%; Norway (Visit): 35.21%. For Norway (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.84. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.75, with an expected value of -3.18%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -4.76%E -3.24%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -8.46%E -3.25%K -5.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-08 12:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -4.76%E -3.24%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -8.46%E -3.25%K -5.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-08 12:49
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.05%E -4.17%K -13.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.46%E -3.25%K -5.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-08 12:54
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.70%E -4.65%K -15.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.18%E -1.15%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-08 12:50
FanDuel🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.38%EV -6.70%E -4.65%K -15.23%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.62%EV -4.23%E -1.56%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-08 12:50
SportsBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -7.35%E -5.14%K -17.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -3.18%E -1.15%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-08 12:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 67.42%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%2.3%2026-04-08 12:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%7.1%2026-04-08 12:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 63.48%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.52%8.6%2026-04-08 12:50