The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Portugal v Norway

Kickoff: 2026-04-06 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Portugal (Local)

Prediction 65.71%1.52fair odd
EV +0.530%
Edge +0.346%
Kelly +0.999%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.77%65.71%65.71%66.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.451.441.5370.92%68.97%69.44%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Norway (Visit)

Prediction 34.29%2.92fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -0.917%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.18%34.29%34.29%39.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.372.692.702.8442.19%37.12%37.04%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Portugal (Local): 65.71%; Norway (Visit): 34.29%. For Portugal (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.52. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.53, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.530%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV +0.530%E +0.346%K +0.999%G +0.005%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -18.72%E -7.90%K -13.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-06 06:00
Neds🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.73%E -3.26%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.41%E -2.74%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 17:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.73%E -3.26%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.41%E -2.74%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 17:19
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.38%E -3.74%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.69%E -2.07%K -3.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-05 17:18
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.38%E -3.74%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.41%E -2.74%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-05 19:45
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.04%E -4.22%K -14.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.98%E -1.42%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-05 17:19
SportsBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.82%EV -7.36%E -5.22%K -17.94%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.18%EV -2.60%E -0.917%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 17:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 63.94%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.06%4.3%2026-04-06 08:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 64.10%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.90%4.7%2026-04-06 08:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 64.10%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.90%4.7%2026-04-06 08:55