The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Portugal v France

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Portugal (Local)

Prediction 71.58%1.40fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -2.49%
Kelly -9.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.66%71.58%71.58%71.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.311.331.331.3576.34%75.19%75.19%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

France (Visit)

Prediction 28.42%3.52fair odd
EV -4.80%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.11%28.42%28.42%30.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.223.253.3532.26%31.06%30.77%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Portugal (Local): 71.58%; France (Visit): 28.42%. For Portugal (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.35, with an expected value of -3.36%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -3.36%E -2.49%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -11.91%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-09 13:25
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -3.36%E -2.49%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -11.91%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-09 13:25
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.79%E -3.60%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.65%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 13:20
SportsBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -6.23%E -4.75%K -20.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-09 13:25
FanDuel🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.23%E -4.75%K -20.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-09 13:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-04-09 13:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-04-09 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 64.53%2.42I 41.32%NM 35.47%16.5%2026-04-09 13:20