The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Portugal v France

Kickoff: 2026-04-08 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Portugal (Local)

Prediction 74.74%1.34fair odd
EV -5.08%
Edge -4.00%
Kelly -18.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.92%74.74%74.74%75.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.261.251.2780.00%79.58%80.00%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

France (Visit)

Prediction 25.26%3.96fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -0.711%
Kelly -0.961%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.51%25.26%25.26%26.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.703.673.8527.78%27.03%27.21%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Portugal (Local): 74.74%; France (Visit): 25.26%. For France (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.96. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.85, with an expected value of -2.74%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.08%E -4.00%K -18.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-08 08:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.08%E -4.00%K -18.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-08 08:40
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -6.58%E -5.26%K -26.31%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -2.74%E -0.711%K -0.961%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-08 08:40
FanDuel🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.58%E -5.26%K -26.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -4.00%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-08 08:44
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.58%E -5.26%K -26.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-08 08:55
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.58%E -5.26%K -26.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-08 08:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%4.4%2026-04-08 08:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%4.4%2026-04-08 08:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%4.9%2026-04-08 08:55