Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pakistan v Sri Lanka

Kickoff: 2026-10-13 12:59 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

66%

34%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pakistan (Local)

Prediction 65.76%1.52fair odd

EV -2.68%

Edge -1.81%

Kelly -5.58%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

64.36%66.16%65.63%70.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.341.441.441.4874.63%69.44%69.44%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sri Lanka (Visit)

Prediction 34.24%2.92fair odd

EV +9.58%

Edge +2.99%

Kelly +4.35%

Growth +0.417%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.52%33.84%34.37%35.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.602.772.753.2038.46%36.16%36.36%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pakistan (Local): 65.76%; Sri Lanka (Visit): 34.24%. For Sri Lanka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.92. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.58%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -11.23%E -8.32%K -32.08%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +9.58%E +2.99%K +4.35%G +0.417%	5.3%	2026-10-13 12:54
GTbets🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -11.89%E -8.87%K -34.96%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV +9.58%E +2.99%K +4.35%G +0.417%	5.9%	2026-10-13 12:55
Pinnacle🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 67.05%EV -5.97%E -4.17%K -13.88%G +0.000%	2.91I 34.36%NM 32.95%EV -0.352%E -0.121%K -0.184%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-10-13 12:55
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -5.31%E -3.69%K -12.07%G +0.000%	2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -1.04%E -0.359%K -0.549%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-10-13 12:44
PlayUp🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.12%E -1.47%K -2.29%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-13 12:50
SportsBet🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.03%EV -5.97%E -4.17%K -13.88%G +0.000%	2.78I 35.97%NM 33.97%EV -4.80%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-13 12:49
FanDuel🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.87%EV -5.97%E -4.17%K -13.88%G +0.000%	2.76I 36.23%NM 34.13%EV -5.49%E -1.99%K -3.12%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-13 12:54
Unibet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.83%E -2.12%K -3.33%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-13 12:55
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.83%E -2.12%K -3.33%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-13 12:54
Virgin Bet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.83%E -2.12%K -3.33%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-13 12:54
Betway🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.83%E -2.12%K -3.33%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-13 12:49
Casumo🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.31%E -3.69%K -12.07%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.83%E -2.12%K -3.33%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-13 12:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.31%E -3.69%K -12.07%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.83%E -2.12%K -3.33%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-13 12:54
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.31%E -3.69%K -12.07%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.83%E -2.12%K -3.33%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-13 12:54
ATG (SE)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.31%E -3.69%K -12.07%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.83%E -2.12%K -3.33%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-13 12:55
Paddy Power🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.31%E -3.69%K -12.07%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.83%E -2.12%K -3.33%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-13 12:50
BoyleSports🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.31%E -3.69%K -12.07%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.83%E -2.12%K -3.33%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-13 12:53
Bet Right🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.68%E -1.81%K -5.58%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.54%E -2.79%K -4.44%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-13 12:49
Neds🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.34%E -2.27%K -7.10%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.54%E -2.79%K -4.44%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-13 12:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.34%E -2.27%K -7.10%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.54%E -2.79%K -4.44%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-13 12:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.00%E -2.74%K -8.69%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -7.54%E -2.79%K -4.44%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-13 12:54
Betsson🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.54%E -2.79%K -4.44%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-13 12:54
NordicBet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.54%E -2.79%K -4.44%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-13 12:55
TAB🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.54%E -2.79%K -4.44%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-13 12:49
Grosvenor🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.31%E -3.69%K -12.07%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.54%E -2.79%K -4.44%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-10-13 12:54
TABtouch🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.31%E -3.69%K -12.07%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.54%E -2.79%K -4.44%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-10-13 12:55
Betr (AU)🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -4.00%E -2.74%K -8.69%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -9.26%E -3.49%K -5.61%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-13 12:54
betano_uk🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -5.31%E -3.69%K -12.07%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -10.97%E -4.22%K -6.85%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-10-13 12:54
Bet Victor🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -5.31%E -3.69%K -12.07%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -10.97%E -4.22%K -6.85%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-10-13 12:48

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Matchbook◎	1.53I 65.36%NM 65.31%	2.88I 34.72%NM 34.69%	0.1%	2026-10-13 12:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.52I 65.79%NM 65.45%	2.88I 34.72%NM 34.55%	0.5%	2026-10-13 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.52I 65.79%NM 65.45%	2.88I 34.72%NM 34.55%	0.5%	2026-10-13 12:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.52I 65.79%NM 65.45%	2.88I 34.72%NM 34.55%	0.5%	2026-10-13 12:50