The School of Odds
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Pakistan v Sri Lanka

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pakistan (Local)

Prediction 65.88%1.52fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -2.15%
Kelly -6.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.15%65.87%65.88%68.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.451.4771.43%69.15%68.97%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sri Lanka (Visit)

Prediction 34.12%2.93fair odd
EV +1.68%
Edge +0.564%
Kelly +0.849%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 2.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.96%34.13%34.12%35.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.752.752.9838.17%36.34%36.36%33.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pakistan (Local): 65.88%; Sri Lanka (Visit): 34.12%. For Sri Lanka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.93. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.98, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.68%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -7.77%E -5.55%K -19.42%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV +1.68%E +0.564%K +0.849%G +0.014%5.0%2026-10-11 12:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -5.13%E -3.57%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -1.39%E -0.481%K -0.735%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-11 12:39
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -5.13%E -3.57%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -1.73%E -0.601%K -0.921%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-11 12:34
SportsBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.82%EV -7.11%E -5.04%K -17.34%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.18%EV -3.10%E -1.09%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 12:44
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.48%E -3.09%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.46%E -1.59%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-11 12:39
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.48%E -3.09%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.46%E -1.59%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-11 12:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.13%E -3.57%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.46%E -1.59%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 12:54
Bet Right🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.13%E -3.57%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.46%E -1.59%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 12:54
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.79%E -4.05%K -13.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.46%E -1.59%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-11 12:44
TAB🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.45%E -4.54%K -15.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.46%E -1.59%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 12:39
Pinnacle🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.65%EV -3.82%E -2.61%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.35%EV -4.80%E -1.72%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-11 12:45
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.48%E -3.09%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.17%E -2.24%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 12:53
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.48%E -3.09%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.17%E -2.24%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 12:53
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.13%E -3.57%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.17%E -2.24%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 12:44
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.13%E -3.57%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.17%E -2.24%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 12:43
Betr (AU)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.79%E -4.05%K -13.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.17%E -2.24%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 12:54
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.16%E -2.15%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.87%E -2.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 12:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.16%E -2.15%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.87%E -2.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 12:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.16%E -2.15%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.87%E -2.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 12:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.16%E -2.15%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.87%E -2.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 12:34
Casumo🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.16%E -2.15%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.87%E -2.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 12:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.16%E -2.15%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.87%E -2.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 12:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.16%E -2.15%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.87%E -2.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 12:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.48%E -3.09%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.87%E -2.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 12:45
Neds🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.48%E -3.09%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.87%E -2.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 12:45
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.77%E -5.55%K -19.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.87%E -2.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 12:54
Grosvenor🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -3.16%E -2.15%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -10.26%E -3.90%K -6.30%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 12:40
TABtouch🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.46%EV -4.48%E -3.09%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.54%EV -10.26%E -3.90%K -6.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 12:39
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.13%E -3.57%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.60%E -4.05%K -6.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-11 12:47
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93%0.2%2026-10-11 12:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93%0.2%2026-10-11 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-10-11 12:54
Matchbook◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-10-11 12:55