The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Norway v France

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Norway (Local)

Prediction 53.47%1.87fair odd
EV -3.76%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -4.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.48%53.38%53.47%55.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.731.721.8058.82%57.66%58.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

France (Visit)

Prediction 46.53%2.15fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.88%46.62%46.53%48.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.052.102.1052.36%48.86%47.62%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Norway (Local): 53.47%; France (Visit): 46.53%. For France (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.15. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -2.28%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -3.76%E -2.09%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -11.12%E -5.82%K -12.22%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-05 07:40
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.27%EV -4.29%E -2.40%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.73%EV -8.79%E -4.49%K -9.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 15:54
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.50%E -4.34%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.28%E -1.09%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-05 08:25
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -8.04%E -4.67%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.28%E -1.09%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-05 08:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -8.04%E -4.67%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.28%E -1.09%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-05 08:25
Neds🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -8.04%E -4.67%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.28%E -1.09%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-05 08:25
GTbets🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -8.04%E -4.67%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -6.93%E -3.47%K -6.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 12:45
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.57%E -5.01%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.28%E -1.09%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 08:24
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -9.11%E -5.36%K -13.01%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -4.61%E -2.25%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-05 08:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-04-05 08:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-04-05 08:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-04-05 08:45