The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Nigeria v Hong Kong

Kickoff: 2026-06-21 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nigeria (Local)

Prediction 20.91%4.78fair odd
EV +4.56%
Edge +0.913%
Kelly +1.14%
Growth +0.052%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.83%20.75%21.05%22.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.564.505.0025.00%21.92%22.22%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hong Kong (Visit)

Prediction 79.09%1.26fair odd
EV -4.30%
Edge -3.56%
Kelly -20.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.82%79.25%78.95%81.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.181.191.2187.72%84.51%84.03%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nigeria (Local): 20.91%; Hong Kong (Visit): 79.09%. For Nigeria (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.78. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.56%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV +4.56%E +0.913%K +1.14%G +0.052%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -8.26%E -7.12%K -51.62%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-21 11:09
SportsBet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV +2.47%E +0.505%K +0.634%G +0.016%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -7.47%E -6.38%K -43.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-21 11:40
FanDuel🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV +2.47%E +0.505%K +0.634%G +0.016%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -7.47%E -6.38%K -43.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-21 11:50
Bet Right🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -0.664%E -0.140%K -0.177%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.89%E -4.95%K -30.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-21 11:49
Pinnacle🎯4.67I 21.41%NM 20.31%EV -2.34%E -0.500%K -0.637%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.69%EV -5.89%E -4.95%K -30.98%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-20 23:30
Betr (AU)🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.73%EV -4.85%E -1.07%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -5.89%E -4.95%K -30.98%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-21 11:49
BetOnline.ag🎯4.51I 22.17%NM 21.15%EV -5.68%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.85%EV -4.30%E -3.56%K -20.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-21 05:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.89%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.10%E -4.25%K -25.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-21 11:39
Neds🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.89%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.10%E -4.25%K -25.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-21 11:29
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.89%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.10%E -4.25%K -25.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-20 15:48
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.89%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.10%E -4.25%K -25.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-21 11:49
BoyleSports🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -5.89%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.47%E -6.38%K -43.93%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-21 11:50
Bet Victor🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -9.45%E -2.18%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -6.68%E -5.66%K -37.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-21 11:49
Betway🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -9.45%E -2.18%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -6.68%E -5.66%K -37.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-21 11:49
TAB🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -16.35%E -4.09%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 77.82%EV -9.84%E -8.63%K -70.29%G +0.000%12.7%2026-06-21 11:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%1.18I 84.75%NM 81.79%3.6%2026-06-21 11:50
Matchbook◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%4.3%2026-06-21 11:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%4.7%2026-06-21 11:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%4.7%2026-06-21 11:40