The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Nepal v UAE

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 11:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nepal (Local)

Prediction 61.41%1.63fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -4.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.43%61.40%61.50%62.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.551.561.5966.23%64.45%64.10%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UAE (Visit)

Prediction 38.59%2.59fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -0.624%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.35%38.60%38.50%40.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.392.382.5543.48%41.89%42.02%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nepal (Local): 61.41%; UAE (Visit): 38.59%. For UAE (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -1.59%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -2.36%E -1.48%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -6.22%E -2.56%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-19 23:25
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.59%E -2.29%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.15%E -3.42%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-20 11:10
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.59%E -2.29%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -9.31%E -3.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-20 11:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.59%E -2.29%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -9.31%E -3.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-20 11:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -3.59%E -2.29%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -11.24%E -4.89%K -8.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 07:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -3.59%E -2.29%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -11.24%E -4.89%K -8.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 07:55
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -3.59%E -2.29%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -11.24%E -4.89%K -8.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 07:59
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.38%E -3.07%K -5.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-20 11:10
LeoVegas🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -11.24%E -4.89%K -8.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 07:55
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -11.24%E -4.89%K -8.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 07:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -11.24%E -4.89%K -8.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 07:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -11.24%E -4.89%K -8.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 07:55
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -11.24%E -4.89%K -8.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 07:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -11.24%E -4.89%K -8.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 07:55
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -11.24%E -4.89%K -8.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 08:05
FanDuel🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.96%EV -4.82%E -3.11%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.04%EV -6.61%E -2.73%K -4.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-20 11:10
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.86%EV -4.82%E -3.11%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.14%EV -6.99%E -2.90%K -4.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-20 11:10
Everygame🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.82%E -3.11%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.38%E -3.07%K -5.27%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-20 10:49
GTbets🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -5.43%E -3.53%K -10.06%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -8.15%E -3.42%K -5.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-20 11:10
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.05%E -3.95%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.52%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-20 11:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.05%E -3.95%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.52%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-20 11:10
Bet Right🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.05%E -3.95%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.52%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-20 11:10
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -6.66%E -4.38%K -12.81%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -1.59%E -0.624%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-20 11:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -6.66%E -4.38%K -12.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -3.52%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-20 11:10
TAB🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -6.66%E -4.38%K -12.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -3.52%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-20 11:08
BetOnline.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -7.27%E -4.82%K -14.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -3.52%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-20 11:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76%0.8%2026-04-20 11:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.34%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.66%1.7%2026-04-20 11:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.49%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.51%2.1%2026-04-20 11:10