The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Nepal v UAE

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 11:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nepal (Local)

Prediction 55.33%1.81fair odd
EV +1.81%
Edge +0.986%
Kelly +2.16%
Growth +0.039%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.48%55.20%54.97%58.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.701.681.8462.50%58.84%59.52%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UAE (Visit)

Prediction 44.67%2.24fair odd
EV +0.945%
Edge +0.418%
Kelly +0.750%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.75%44.80%45.03%48.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.112.102.2652.36%47.29%47.62%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nepal (Local): 55.33%; UAE (Visit): 44.67%. For Nepal (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.81. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.84, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV +1.81%E +0.986%K +2.16%G +0.039%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -12.46%E -6.35%K -12.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-21 11:10
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -0.398%E -0.221%K -0.498%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -9.78%E -4.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-21 11:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -0.398%E -0.221%K -0.498%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -10.67%E -5.33%K -10.67%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-21 11:05
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -0.398%E -0.221%K -0.498%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -10.67%E -5.33%K -10.67%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-21 11:05
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -0.398%E -0.221%K -0.498%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -14.69%E -7.69%K -16.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 11:10
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.76%EV -2.61%E -1.48%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.24%EV -4.86%E -2.28%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-21 11:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -3.17%E -1.81%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -10.67%E -5.33%K -10.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 11:09
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.27%E -2.47%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.20%E -2.95%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-21 11:05
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.38%E -3.15%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.20%E -2.95%K -5.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-21 11:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -0.842%E -0.379%K -0.690%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-21 11:10
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -7.04%E -4.19%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.20%E -2.95%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 11:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -7.04%E -4.19%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.20%E -2.95%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 11:05
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -7.04%E -4.19%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.20%E -2.95%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 11:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -7.04%E -4.19%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.20%E -2.95%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 11:05
LeoVegas🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -7.04%E -4.19%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.20%E -2.95%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 11:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -7.04%E -4.19%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.20%E -2.95%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 11:05
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -7.04%E -4.19%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.20%E -2.95%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 11:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -7.04%E -4.19%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.20%E -2.95%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 11:05
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -7.04%E -4.19%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.20%E -2.95%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 11:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -7.04%E -4.19%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.20%E -2.95%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 11:05
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV +0.498%E +0.221%K +0.398%G +0.002%5.1%2026-04-21 11:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV +0.498%E +0.221%K +0.398%G +0.002%5.1%2026-04-21 11:09
GTbets🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.07%EV -9.25%E -5.64%K -14.46%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.93%EV -2.63%E -1.21%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 11:09
SportsBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -10.36%E -6.39%K -16.71%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV +0.945%E +0.418%K +0.750%G +0.007%6.0%2026-04-21 11:09
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -10.36%E -6.39%K -16.71%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV +0.945%E +0.418%K +0.750%G +0.007%6.0%2026-04-21 11:10
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -10.36%E -6.39%K -16.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV +0.498%E +0.221%K +0.398%G +0.002%6.2%2026-04-21 11:09
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -11.47%E -7.17%K -19.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -1.74%E -0.789%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-21 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%0.5%2026-04-21 11:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.78%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.22%1.2%2026-04-21 11:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.68I 59.52%NM 58.00%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.00%2.6%2026-04-21 11:10