The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Namibia v Uganda

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Namibia (Local)

Prediction 68.44%1.46fair odd
EV +7.45%
Edge +4.75%
Kelly +13.07%
Growth +0.974%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.90%66.52%68.44%70.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.391.361.5775.19%72.08%73.53%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Uganda (Visit)

Prediction 31.56%3.17fair odd
EV +2.57%
Edge +0.790%
Kelly +1.14%
Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.04%33.48%31.56%41.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.963.003.2544.44%33.74%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Namibia (Local): 68.44%; Uganda (Visit): 31.56%. For Namibia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.46. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.45%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV +7.45%E +4.75%K +13.07%G +0.974%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -28.99%E -12.89%K -23.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-20 18:54
GTbets🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV +2.66%E +1.77%K +5.32%G +0.142%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -21.10%E -8.44%K -14.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-20 15:25
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.18%E -2.99%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.32%E -1.77%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-21 11:30
TAB🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.55%E -4.02%K -14.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.32%E -1.77%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-21 11:29
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.92%E -5.09%K -19.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.32%E -1.77%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-21 11:30
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.92%E -5.09%K -19.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -8.48%E -2.92%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-21 11:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -7.60%E -5.63%K -21.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +0.988%E +0.309%K +0.449%G +0.004%5.3%2026-03-21 11:55
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -7.60%E -5.63%K -21.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -2.17%E -0.699%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 11:54
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -8.97%E -6.75%K -27.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV +2.57%E +0.790%K +1.14%G +0.029%6.0%2026-03-21 11:55
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -8.97%E -6.75%K -27.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV +2.57%E +0.790%K +1.14%G +0.029%6.0%2026-03-21 11:55
FanDuel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -8.97%E -6.75%K -27.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -0.590%E -0.187%K -0.274%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-21 11:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.