Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Namibia v Nigeria

Kickoff: 2026-06-20 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Namibia (Local)

Prediction 85.82%1.17fair odd
EV +0.413%
Edge +0.353%
Kelly +2.43%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.49%85.46%85.58%87.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.101.091.1792.59%91.09%91.74%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nigeria (Visit)

Prediction 14.18%7.05fair odd
EV +12.00%
Edge +1.52%
Kelly +1.74%
Growth +0.209%

assuming max odds 7.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.03%14.54%14.42%18.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.156.766.757.9019.42%14.79%14.81%12.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Namibia (Local): 85.82%; Nigeria (Visit): 14.18%. For Nigeria (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.05. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.97%EV -7.31%E -6.77%K -91.39%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 12.03%EV +12.00%E +1.52%K +1.74%G +0.209%5.3%2026-06-20 11:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.50%EV -6.45%E -5.92%K -71.70%G +0.000%7.63I 13.11%NM 12.50%EV +8.17%E +1.07%K +1.23%G +0.101%4.8%2026-06-20 11:50
Bet Right🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.45%E -5.92%K -71.70%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +6.33%E +0.844%K +0.973%G +0.062%5.1%2026-06-20 11:50
SportsBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -7.31%E -6.77%K -91.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +6.33%E +0.844%K +0.973%G +0.062%5.9%2026-06-20 11:49
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.59%E -5.09%K -55.95%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -0.761%E -0.109%K -0.127%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-20 11:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.31%E -6.77%K -91.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -0.761%E -0.109%K -0.127%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-20 11:49
Neds🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.31%E -6.77%K -91.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -0.761%E -0.109%K -0.127%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-20 11:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.74%E -4.27%K -43.06%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -7.85%E -1.21%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-20 11:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.59%E -5.09%K -55.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -7.85%E -1.21%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-20 11:39
TAB🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.59%E -5.09%K -55.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -7.85%E -1.21%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-20 11:40
Betway🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -7.31%E -6.77%K -91.39%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -7.85%E -1.21%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-20 11:49
GTbets🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.88%E -3.46%K -32.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -14.94%E -2.49%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-20 11:20
Bet Victor🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.63%EV -6.45%E -5.92%K -71.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -14.94%E -2.49%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-20 11:38
Pinnacle🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.49%EV +0.413%E +0.353%K +2.43%G +0.010%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.51%EV -26.99%E -5.24%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-20 01:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%5.1%2026-06-20 11:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%5.1%2026-06-20 11:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%5.1%2026-06-20 11:50