The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Mexico v Panama

Kickoff: 2026-08-06 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mexico (Local)

Prediction 40.80%2.45fair odd
EV +4.85%
Edge +1.89%
Kelly +3.09%
Growth +0.150%

assuming max odds 2.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.70%40.71%40.80%44.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.392.502.5747.62%41.82%40.00%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Panama (Visit)

Prediction 59.20%1.69fair odd
EV -1.14%
Edge -0.680%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.70%59.29%59.20%63.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.551.531.6767.11%64.33%65.36%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mexico (Local): 40.80%; Panama (Visit): 59.20%. For Mexico (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.45. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.85%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.70%EV +4.85%E +1.89%K +3.09%G +0.150%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.30%EV -11.79%E -7.91%K -24.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 17:50
FanDuel🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.95%EV +4.45%E +1.74%K +2.85%G +0.127%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.05%EV -11.20%E -7.47%K -22.40%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-06 17:50
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.00%E +0.799%K +1.33%G +0.027%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.42%E -6.16%K -17.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 17:49
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV +2.00%E +0.799%K +1.33%G +0.027%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -10.02%E -6.59%K -19.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 17:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV +2.00%E +0.799%K +1.33%G +0.027%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -10.02%E -6.59%K -19.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 17:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -2.49%E -1.04%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -7.65%E -4.90%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 17:50
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -10.24%E -4.66%K -8.53%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.28%E -3.30%K -8.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-06 17:43
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -10.24%E -4.66%K -8.53%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.28%E -3.30%K -8.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-06 17:45
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -14.32%E -6.82%K -13.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -1.14%E -0.680%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-06 14:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%0.5%2026-08-06 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%0.5%2026-08-06 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%0.5%2026-08-06 17:50