The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Mexico v Costa Rica

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mexico (Local)

Prediction 94.47%1.06fair odd
EV -4.58%
Edge -4.54%
Kelly -458.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
92.31%94.47%94.47%96.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.011.011.01100.00%99.34%99.01%99.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Costa Rica (Visit)

Prediction 5.53%18.09fair odd
EV +60.34%
Edge +2.08%
Kelly +2.15%
Growth +1.30%

assuming max odds 29.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.37%5.53%5.53%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.0017.5415.5029.008.33%5.70%6.45%3.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mexico (Local): 94.47%; Costa Rica (Visit): 5.53%. For Costa Rica (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 18.09. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 29.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +60.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%EV -4.58%E -4.54%K -458.42%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%EV +60.34%E +2.08%K +2.15%G +1.30%2.5%2026-04-04 19:54
SportsBet🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 95.00%EV -5.53%E -5.53%K +0.000%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV +5.05%E +0.266%K +0.281%G +0.014%5.3%2026-04-04 19:54
Bet Right🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.58%E -4.54%K -458.42%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -11.54%E -0.721%K -0.769%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-04 19:49
Paddy Power🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.58%E -4.54%K -458.42%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -17.07%E -1.14%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 19:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -4.58%E -4.54%K -458.42%G +0.000%14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -21.21%E -1.49%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 19:49
Betway🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 92.31%EV -5.53%E -5.53%K +0.000%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -33.65%E -2.80%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 19:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 96.71%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.29%1.4%2026-04-04 19:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 96.71%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.29%1.4%2026-04-04 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 96.23%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.77%1.9%2026-04-04 19:54