The School of Odds
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Mexico v Brazil

2026-08-08 13:30 UTC — International Twenty20

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mexico (Local)

Prediction 30.28%3.30fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -0.493%
Kelly -0.712%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.04%30.28%30.28%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.093.103.2533.33%32.33%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brazil (Visit)

Prediction 69.72%1.43fair odd
EV -5.18%
Edge -3.81%
Kelly -14.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%69.72%69.72%70.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.351.351.3675.19%74.15%74.07%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Mexico (Local): 30.28%; Brazil (Visit): 69.72%. For Mexico (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.30. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.25, with an expected value of -1.60%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -1.60%E -0.493%K -0.712%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.27%E -5.46%K -22.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-07 21:40
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -3.12%E -0.974%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -7.27%E -5.46%K -22.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-07 21:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.87%E -4.35%K -16.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-07 21:40
Neds🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.87%E -4.35%K -16.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-07 21:40
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.17%E -3.06%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.18%E -3.81%K -14.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-07 21:39
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.17%E -3.06%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.18%E -3.81%K -14.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-07 21:40
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.17%E -3.06%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.18%E -3.81%K -14.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-07 21:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 30.25%1.11I 90.09%NM 69.75%29.2%2026-08-07 22:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 30.25%1.11I 90.09%NM 69.75%29.2%2026-08-07 22:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 30.25%1.11I 90.09%NM 69.75%29.2%2026-08-07 22:40