The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Malta v Gibraltar

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malta (Local)

Prediction 84.42%1.18fair odd
EV -5.45%
Edge -4.86%
Kelly -45.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.46%84.42%83.94%88.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.101.111.1293.46%90.63%90.09%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gibraltar (Visit)

Prediction 15.58%6.42fair odd
EV +24.63%
Edge +3.08%
Kelly +3.52%
Growth +0.867%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.89%15.58%16.06%16.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.606.326.258.0017.86%15.82%16.00%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Malta (Local): 84.42%; Gibraltar (Visit): 15.58%. For Gibraltar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.42. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.63%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -8.82%E -8.17%K -110.31%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +24.63%E +3.08%K +3.52%G +0.867%5.1%2026-05-09 11:39
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.29%E -5.67%K -57.20%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +1.26%E +0.194%K +0.229%G +0.003%5.5%2026-05-09 11:39
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -7.14%E -6.49%K -71.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +1.26%E +0.194%K +0.229%G +0.003%6.3%2026-05-09 11:40
Betsson🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.87%EV -9.67%E -9.04%K -138.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV +1.26%E +0.194%K +0.229%G +0.003%8.8%2026-05-09 10:48
NordicBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.87%EV -9.67%E -9.04%K -138.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV +1.26%E +0.194%K +0.229%G +0.003%8.8%2026-05-09 10:54
Bet Right🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.45%E -4.86%K -45.40%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -2.63%E -0.421%K -0.502%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 10:50
PlayUp🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.45%E -4.86%K -45.40%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -2.63%E -0.421%K -0.502%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 10:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.45%E -4.86%K -45.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -6.53%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 10:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.45%E -4.86%K -45.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -6.53%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 11:39
Neds🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.45%E -4.86%K -45.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -6.53%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 11:39
Betway🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.94%EV -7.14%E -6.49%K -71.36%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.06%EV -10.42%E -1.81%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 11:39
Bet Victor🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -6.29%E -5.67%K -57.20%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -12.76%E -2.28%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 10:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 80.22%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.78%17.6%2026-05-09 11:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 80.22%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.78%17.6%2026-05-09 11:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 80.37%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.63%18.5%2026-05-09 11:44