The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Malta v Gibraltar

Kickoff: 2026-05-07 07:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malta (Local)

Prediction 61.12%1.64fair odd
EV +5.12%
Edge +2.98%
Kelly +7.12%
Growth +0.365%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.76%60.49%61.18%62.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.551.541.7266.67%64.46%65.15%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gibraltar (Visit)

Prediction 38.88%2.57fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.644%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.22%39.51%38.82%46.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.382.402.5350.00%41.93%41.67%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Malta (Local): 61.12%; Gibraltar (Visit): 38.88%. For Malta (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.64. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.72, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV +5.12%E +2.98%K +7.12%G +0.365%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -22.24%E -11.12%K -22.24%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-06 11:55
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV +2.07%E +1.24%K +3.09%G +0.064%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -18.35%E -8.74%K -16.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-06 14:35
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.74%E -1.94%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 06:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.69%E -2.79%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 06:55
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.69%E -2.79%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 06:55
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.69%E -2.79%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 06:55
Bet Right🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.88%E -3.82%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -3.57%E -1.44%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 06:55
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.50%EV -5.88%E -3.82%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.50%EV -4.35%E -1.77%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-07 06:54
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.80%E -1.12%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 06:55
SportsBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -4.35%E -1.77%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-07 06:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.74%E -1.94%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 06:55
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.46%E -3.14%K -5.41%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-07 06:54
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -8.63%E -3.67%K -6.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-07 06:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.78%EV -8.32%E -5.55%K -16.64%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.22%EV -1.63%E -0.644%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 06:55
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.32%E -5.55%K -16.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.69%E -2.79%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-07 06:55
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.32%E -5.55%K -16.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.69%E -2.79%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-07 06:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%0.6%2026-05-07 06:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%0.6%2026-05-07 06:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%0.6%2026-05-07 06:55