Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malaysia v UAE

Kickoff: 2026-09-14 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malaysia (Local)

Prediction 28.49%3.51fair odd
EV +13.95%
Edge +3.49%
Kelly +4.65%
Growth +0.648%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.52%28.36%27.82%32.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.503.424.0034.72%28.58%29.20%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UAE (Visit)

Prediction 71.51%1.40fair odd
EV -1.31%
Edge -0.950%
Kelly -3.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.92%71.64%72.18%76.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.301.291.3881.30%77.18%77.22%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Malaysia (Local): 28.49%; UAE (Visit): 71.51%. For Malaysia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.51. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.95%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV +13.95%E +3.49%K +4.65%G +0.648%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -12.04%E -9.79%K -52.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 01:45
FanDuel🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV +11.10%E +2.85%K +3.83%G +0.425%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -11.32%E -9.13%K -47.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 01:45
Paddy Power🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +6.82%E +1.82%K +2.48%G +0.169%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -10.61%E -8.49%K -42.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-14 01:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV +5.40%E +1.46%K +2.00%G +0.108%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -9.18%E -7.23%K -33.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-14 01:45
Neds🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV +5.40%E +1.46%K +2.00%G +0.108%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -9.18%E -7.23%K -33.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-14 01:45
PlayUp🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +2.55%E +0.709%K +0.981%G +0.025%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -7.03%E -5.41%K -23.44%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-14 01:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -1.72%E -0.499%K -0.703%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -4.89%E -3.67%K -14.81%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-14 00:15
DraftKings🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -3.15%E -0.925%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -6.32%E -4.82%K -20.38%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-13 22:25
GTbets🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -3.15%E -0.925%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.03%E -5.41%K -23.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 22:25
betano_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -3.15%E -0.925%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -7.75%E -6.01%K -26.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-14 01:44
Bet Victor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -3.15%E -0.925%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -7.75%E -6.01%K -26.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-14 01:45
TAB🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.99%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.60%E -4.24%K -17.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-14 01:50
Pinnacle🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -1.31%E -0.950%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-14 01:35
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -17.96%E -6.24%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -2.74%E -2.02%K -7.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 09:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.64%1.39I 71.94%NM 70.36%2.2%2026-09-14 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.34%1.37I 72.99%NM 70.66%3.3%2026-09-14 01:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.34%1.37I 72.99%NM 70.66%3.3%2026-09-14 01:55