The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Malaysia v UAE

Kickoff: 2026-09-17 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malaysia (Local)

Prediction 17.90%5.59fair odd
EV +7.97%
Edge +1.32%
Kelly +1.58%
Growth +0.126%

assuming max odds 6.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.78%17.90%18.23%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.125.006.0321.74%19.52%20.00%16.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UAE (Visit)

Prediction 82.10%1.22fair odd
EV -3.13%
Edge -2.65%
Kelly -17.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.00%82.10%81.77%84.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.151.151.1888.50%86.77%86.96%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Malaysia (Local): 17.90%; UAE (Visit): 82.10%. For Malaysia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.59. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.03, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.97%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯6.03I 16.58%NM 15.78%EV +7.97%E +1.32%K +1.58%G +0.126%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.22%EV -7.23%E -6.40%K -55.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-16 23:55
FanDuel🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV +0.267%E +0.048%K +0.058%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -7.23%E -6.40%K -55.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-17 01:48
SportsBet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -1.52%E -0.277%K -0.338%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.41%E -5.62%K -45.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 01:54
BetOnline.ag🎯5.16I 19.38%NM 18.23%EV -7.61%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.77%EV -5.59%E -4.86%K -37.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-16 22:20
PlayUp🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -10.48%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -3.13%E -2.65%K -17.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-17 01:55
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -10.48%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.95%E -3.37%K -23.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-17 01:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -10.48%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.77%E -4.11%K -29.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-17 01:50
Neds🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -10.48%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.77%E -4.11%K -29.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-17 01:50
TAB🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -10.48%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.77%E -4.11%K -29.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-17 01:55
Betway🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -10.48%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -5.59%E -4.86%K -37.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-17 01:45
Bet Victor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -17.64%E -3.83%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -5.59%E -4.86%K -37.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-17 01:54
betano_uk🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -17.64%E -3.83%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -5.59%E -4.86%K -37.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-17 01:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55%1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45%0.7%2026-09-17 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55%1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45%0.7%2026-09-17 01:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43%1.18I 84.75%NM 83.57%1.4%2026-09-17 01:55