The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Kenya v Uganda

Kickoff: 2026-09-18 07:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kenya (Local)

Prediction 38.14%2.62fair odd
EV -4.28%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -2.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.56%38.14%38.14%38.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.472.482.5141.67%40.51%40.40%39.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Uganda (Visit)

Prediction 61.86%1.62fair odd
EV -4.11%
Edge -2.65%
Kelly -7.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.25%61.86%61.86%62.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.531.521.5566.67%65.50%65.57%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kenya (Local): 38.14%; Uganda (Visit): 61.86%. For Uganda (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.62. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.55, with an expected value of -4.11%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.56%EV -4.28%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.44%EV -6.59%E -4.36%K -12.91%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 07:25
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.66%E -1.86%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.35%E -3.50%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-18 07:25
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -4.66%E -1.86%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.97%E -3.93%K -11.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 07:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.57%E -2.68%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.11%E -2.65%K -7.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 07:25
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.57%E -2.68%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.11%E -2.65%K -7.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 07:24
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.47%E -3.53%K -6.05%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.20%E -4.80%K -14.41%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-18 07:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.59%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41%0.8%2026-09-18 07:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.59%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41%0.8%2026-09-18 07:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.59%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41%0.8%2026-09-18 07:25