The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Japan v Hong Kong

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Japan (Local)

Prediction 22.78%4.39fair odd
EV +9.34%
Edge +1.94%
Kelly +2.46%
Growth +0.229%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.73%22.85%22.40%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.164.154.8028.57%24.05%24.07%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hong Kong (Visit)

Prediction 77.22%1.29fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -7.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.68%77.15%77.60%80.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.221.231.2785.47%81.88%81.30%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Japan (Local): 22.78%; Hong Kong (Visit): 77.22%. For Japan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.39. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV +9.34%E +1.94%K +2.46%G +0.229%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -8.88%E -7.52%K -49.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-19 20:44
PlayUp🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV +8.20%E +1.73%K +2.19%G +0.179%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -8.11%E -6.81%K -42.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-19 20:44
Bet Right🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV +8.20%E +1.73%K +2.19%G +0.179%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -8.11%E -6.81%K -42.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-19 20:44
Betr (AU)🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.73%EV +3.64%E +0.800%K +1.03%G +0.037%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -8.11%E -6.81%K -42.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-19 20:40
Bet Victor🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV +0.225%E +0.051%K +0.066%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -9.65%E -8.25%K -56.77%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-20 00:29
betano_uk🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV +0.225%E +0.051%K +0.066%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -9.65%E -8.25%K -56.77%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-20 00:33
BoyleSports🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -1.37%E -0.316%K -0.411%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -7.33%E -6.11%K -36.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 17:33
Pinnacle🎯4.26I 23.47%NM 22.40%EV -2.96%E -0.696%K -0.909%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.60%EV -5.02%E -4.08%K -21.81%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-20 00:04
SportsBet🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -7.75%E -1.91%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -5.02%E -4.08%K -21.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 00:34
FanDuel🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -11.16%E -2.86%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -4.25%E -3.42%K -17.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 00:39
DraftKings🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -12.30%E -3.20%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -2.70%E -2.14%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-19 22:19
GTbets🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -12.30%E -3.20%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -3.47%E -2.78%K -13.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-19 22:19
Paddy Power🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -14.58%E -3.89%K -5.30%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.47%E -2.78%K -13.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 00:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -15.72%E -4.25%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -1.93%E -1.52%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-20 00:35
Neds🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -15.72%E -4.25%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -1.93%E -1.52%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-20 00:35
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -20.28%E -5.79%K -8.11%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -3.47%E -2.78%K -13.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 14:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61%0.9%2026-09-20 00:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.15%1.18I 84.75%NM 82.85%2.3%2026-09-20 00:54
Matchbook◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.15%1.18I 84.75%NM 82.85%2.3%2026-09-20 00:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.03%1.17I 85.47%NM 82.97%3.0%2026-09-20 00:54