The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Japan v Hong Kong

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Japan (Local)

Prediction 31.81%3.14fair odd
EV +0.216%
Edge +0.068%
Kelly +0.100%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.16%31.70%31.92%32.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.852.983.003.1535.09%33.54%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hong Kong (Visit)

Prediction 68.19%1.47fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -2.74%
Kelly -9.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.29%68.30%68.08%69.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.371.371.4174.07%72.96%72.99%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Japan (Local): 31.81%; Hong Kong (Visit): 68.19%. For Japan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.14. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.216%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV +0.216%E +0.068%K +0.100%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.19%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 02:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -1.38%E -0.444%K -0.655%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -6.59%E -4.81%K -17.80%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 02:05
Bet Right🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -1.38%E -0.444%K -0.655%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -6.59%E -4.81%K -17.80%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 02:05
TAB🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -1.38%E -0.444%K -0.655%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -7.95%E -5.89%K -22.71%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-18 05:14
Betr (AU)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -2.97%E -0.972%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-18 02:05
BetOnline.ag🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%EV -3.60%E -1.19%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.24%EV -3.86%E -2.74%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-18 10:55
SportsBet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -3.92%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -6.59%E -4.81%K -17.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 10:30
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -6.59%E -4.81%K -17.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-18 10:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 10:29
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 10:30
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 10:30
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-18 10:30
betano_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-18 10:29
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-18 10:29
Betway🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -9.33%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-18 10:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.88I 34.72%NM 30.94%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.06%12.2%2026-09-18 15:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 30.60%1.27I 78.74%NM 69.40%13.5%2026-09-18 15:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 30.60%1.27I 78.74%NM 69.40%13.5%2026-09-18 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 30.60%1.27I 78.74%NM 69.40%13.5%2026-09-18 15:15