The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Japan v Bhutan

Kickoff: 2026-02-27 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Japan (Local)

Prediction 89.59%1.12fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -3.00%
Kelly -40.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.63%89.15%89.64%90.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.061.061.0896.15%93.96%94.34%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bhutan (Visit)

Prediction 10.41%9.61fair odd
EV +4.09%
Edge +0.409%
Kelly +0.454%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.50%10.85%10.36%13.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.398.2510.0014.29%11.92%12.12%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Japan (Local): 89.59%; Bhutan (Visit): 10.41%. For Bhutan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.61. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.93%E -5.65%K -118.59%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +4.09%E +0.409%K +0.454%G +0.019%5.2%2026-02-27 01:45
Pinnacle🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.21%EV -5.03%E -4.75%K -83.89%G +0.000%9.77I 10.24%NM 9.79%EV +1.70%E +0.173%K +0.193%G +0.003%4.6%2026-02-27 01:49
FanDuel🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.67%EV -5.03%E -4.75%K -83.89%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.33%EV -4.24%E -0.461%K -0.517%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 00:54
DraftKings🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.03%E -4.75%K -83.89%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -6.32%E -0.702%K -0.790%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-27 01:35
BoyleSports🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -6.83%E -6.56%K -170.63%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -6.32%E -0.702%K -0.790%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-26 21:09
SportsBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.03%E -4.75%K -83.89%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -11.52%E -1.36%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-27 00:50
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.03%E -4.75%K -83.89%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -11.52%E -1.36%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-27 00:49
Bet Right🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.24%E -3.00%K -40.52%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -16.73%E -2.09%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-27 01:35
PlayUp🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.24%E -3.00%K -40.52%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -16.73%E -2.09%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-27 01:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.03%E -4.75%K -83.89%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -16.73%E -2.09%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-27 00:50
Neds🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.03%E -4.75%K -83.89%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -16.73%E -2.09%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-27 00:49
TAB🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -3.24%E -3.00%K -40.52%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -21.93%E -2.92%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 01:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -3.24%E -3.00%K -40.52%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -27.14%E -3.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-27 01:34
Betway🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -4.14%E -3.87%K -59.11%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -27.14%E -3.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-27 00:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 90.25%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.75%2.6%2026-02-27 01:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 90.25%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.75%2.6%2026-02-27 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 90.25%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.75%2.6%2026-02-27 01:54