The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Japan v Bahrain

Kickoff: 2026-02-26 06:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Japan (Local)

Prediction 28.49%3.51fair odd
EV +2.55%
Edge +0.708%
Kelly +0.980%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.08%28.47%28.24%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.353.393.6033.33%29.83%29.50%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bahrain (Visit)

Prediction 71.51%1.40fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -7.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.23%71.53%71.76%73.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.311.311.3678.74%76.37%76.63%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Japan (Local): 28.49%; Bahrain (Visit): 71.51%. For Japan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.51. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.55%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV +2.55%E +0.708%K +0.980%G +0.025%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -8.46%E -6.61%K -30.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-26 06:19
FanDuel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV +2.55%E +0.708%K +0.980%G +0.025%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -9.18%E -7.23%K -33.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-26 06:19
DraftKings🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -0.299%E -0.086%K -0.120%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -7.75%E -6.01%K -26.71%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-26 06:24
GTbets🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -1.72%E -0.500%K -0.704%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -7.75%E -6.01%K -26.71%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-26 06:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -3.15%E -0.926%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.03%E -5.41%K -23.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-26 06:19
Neds🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -3.15%E -0.926%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.03%E -5.41%K -23.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-26 06:19
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -3.15%E -0.926%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.03%E -5.41%K -23.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-26 06:04
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -3.15%E -0.926%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -7.75%E -6.01%K -26.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-26 06:19
Pinnacle🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 28.24%EV -3.72%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.76%EV -4.89%E -3.67%K -14.81%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-26 06:19
PlayUp🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.57%E -1.36%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.89%E -3.67%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-26 06:19
Bet Right🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -4.57%E -1.36%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -6.32%E -4.82%K -20.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-26 06:19
TAB🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.00%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.60%E -4.24%K -17.50%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-26 06:19
888sport🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.42%E -2.28%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.89%E -3.67%K -14.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-26 06:24
Betr (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -8.85%E -2.76%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -5.60%E -4.24%K -17.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-26 06:19
BetOnline.ag🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 30.77%EV -12.83%E -4.19%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.23%EV -2.74%E -2.02%K -7.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-26 03:55
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -14.54%E -4.85%K -7.27%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -4.89%E -3.67%K -14.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-25 14:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%0.7%2026-02-26 06:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%1.41I 70.92%NM 70.06%1.2%2026-02-26 06:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 29.96%1.39I 71.94%NM 70.04%2.7%2026-02-26 06:24