The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Israel v Romania

Kickoff: 2026-07-27 11:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Israel (Local)

Prediction 6.98%14.33fair odd
EV +32.57%
Edge +1.71%
Kelly +1.81%
Growth +0.589%

assuming max odds 19.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.09%6.98%7.28%8.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0014.0014.0019.009.09%7.14%7.14%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Romania (Visit)

Prediction 93.02%1.08fair odd
EV -3.26%
Edge -3.13%
Kelly -81.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
91.44%93.02%92.72%94.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.021.021.0499.01%98.04%98.04%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Israel (Local): 6.98%; Romania (Visit): 93.02%. For Israel (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.33. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 19.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +32.57%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +32.57%E +1.71%K +1.81%G +0.589%1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -5.12%E -5.02%K -255.85%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-27 11:25
SportsBet🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +4.66%E +0.311%K +0.333%G +0.016%1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -6.05%E -5.99%K -604.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 11:20
Neds🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +4.66%E +0.311%K +0.333%G +0.016%1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -6.05%E -5.99%K -604.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 11:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +4.66%E +0.311%K +0.333%G +0.016%1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -6.05%E -5.99%K -604.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 11:15
BoyleSports🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -9.29%E -0.715%K -0.774%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.12%E -5.02%K -255.85%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 08:09
TAB🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -16.27%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -3.26%E -3.13%K -81.41%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-27 11:20
Paddy Power🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -16.27%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.12%E -5.02%K -255.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 11:25
Betway🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -23.25%E -2.11%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -4.19%E -4.06%K -139.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-27 11:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81%1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19%0.9%2026-07-27 11:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎22.00I 4.55%NM 4.47%1.03I 97.09%NM 95.53%1.6%2026-07-27 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎22.00I 4.55%NM 4.47%1.03I 97.09%NM 95.53%1.6%2026-07-27 11:25

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