The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Indonesia v Sweden

Kickoff: 2026-04-13 06:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Indonesia (Local)

Prediction 34.72%2.88fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -0.862%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.57%34.72%34.72%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.712.702.8138.46%36.93%37.04%35.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sweden (Visit)

Prediction 65.28%1.53fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -7.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.16%65.28%65.28%66.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.451.441.4870.42%69.03%69.20%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Indonesia (Local): 34.72%; Sweden (Visit): 65.28%. For Indonesia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.88. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.81, with an expected value of -2.42%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.57%EV -2.42%E -0.862%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.43%EV -7.31%E -5.15%K -17.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-13 05:55
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -2.77%E -0.989%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.66%E -4.65%K -15.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-13 05:55
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.51%E -1.64%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.00%E -4.17%K -13.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-13 05:53
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.24%E -2.31%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.35%E -3.69%K -11.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-13 05:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.24%E -2.31%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.35%E -3.69%K -11.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-13 05:55
Bet Right🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.98%E -3.01%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.39%E -2.29%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-13 05:55
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.98%E -3.01%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.39%E -2.29%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-13 05:55
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -9.72%E -3.74%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.00%E -4.17%K -13.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-13 05:47
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 39.59%1.35I 74.07%NM 60.41%22.6%2026-04-13 05:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 39.59%1.35I 74.07%NM 60.41%22.6%2026-04-13 05:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 39.59%1.35I 74.07%NM 60.41%22.6%2026-04-13 05:55