The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Indonesia v Sweden

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 06:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Indonesia (Local)

Prediction 32.75%3.05fair odd
EV +2.18%
Edge +0.699%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 3.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.20%32.75%32.75%33.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.902.903.1236.36%34.52%34.48%32.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sweden (Visit)

Prediction 67.25%1.49fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -2.68%
Kelly -8.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.27%67.25%67.25%69.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.391.401.4374.07%71.83%71.43%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Indonesia (Local): 32.75%; Sweden (Visit): 67.25%. For Indonesia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.05. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.12, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.18%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 30.20%EV +2.18%E +0.699%K +1.03%G +0.022%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.80%EV -9.21%E -6.82%K -26.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-09 05:54
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -1.75%E -0.584%K -0.875%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.54%E -6.28%K -23.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 05:54
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.03%E -1.73%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.85%E -4.18%K -14.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 05:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.03%E -1.73%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.85%E -4.18%K -14.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 05:49
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -5.03%E -1.73%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -9.21%E -6.82%K -26.32%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-09 05:55
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.66%E -2.34%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.83%E -2.68%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-09 05:50
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -6.66%E -2.34%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.50%E -3.17%K -10.73%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-09 05:49
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -8.30%E -2.96%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.50%E -3.17%K -10.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-09 05:49
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.94%E -3.61%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.85%E -4.18%K -14.62%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-09 05:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 32.09%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.91%6.7%2026-04-09 05:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 32.09%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.91%6.7%2026-04-09 05:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 32.09%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.91%6.7%2026-04-09 05:50