The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hong Kong v Kuwait

Kickoff: 2026-02-25 05:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hong Kong (Local)

Prediction 40.86%2.45fair odd
EV +4.20%
Edge +1.65%
Kelly +2.71%
Growth +0.114%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.71%40.76%42.64%46.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.252.232.5550.00%44.42%44.94%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kuwait (Visit)

Prediction 59.14%1.69fair odd
EV +4.67%
Edge +2.64%
Kelly +6.07%
Growth +0.284%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.66%59.24%57.36%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.631.671.7768.97%61.40%60.06%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hong Kong (Local): 40.86%; Kuwait (Visit): 59.14%. For Kuwait (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.69. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.67%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -16.23%E -7.92%K -15.46%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV +4.67%E +2.64%K +6.07%G +0.284%5.3%2026-02-25 05:09
GTbets🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -18.27%E -9.14%K -18.27%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV +1.72%E +0.998%K +2.38%G +0.041%8.1%2026-02-24 18:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -12.15%E -5.65%K -10.56%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV +0.533%E +0.314%K +0.762%G +0.004%5.3%2026-02-25 05:14
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -12.15%E -5.65%K -10.56%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV +0.533%E +0.314%K +0.762%G +0.004%5.3%2026-02-25 05:14
Pinnacle🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.64%EV -7.65%E -3.39%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.36%EV -0.649%E -0.387%K -0.955%G +0.000%3.8%2026-02-25 05:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -10.10%E -4.59%K -8.42%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.24%E -0.743%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-25 05:22
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -14.19%E -6.76%K -12.90%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -1.24%E -0.743%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-24 18:45
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -14.19%E -6.76%K -12.90%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -1.24%E -0.743%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-25 05:23
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -10.92%E -5.01%K -9.25%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -1.83%E -1.10%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-25 05:15
Bet Right🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.83%E -3.00%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.61%E -2.21%K -5.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-25 05:24
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.06%E -3.58%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.20%E -2.59%K -6.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-25 05:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -8.06%E -3.58%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.79%E -2.97%K -7.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-25 05:24
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.16%E +0.863%K +1.44%G +0.031%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.52%E -6.22%K -17.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-25 05:17
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV +2.16%E +0.863%K +1.44%G +0.031%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -11.29%E -7.53%K -22.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-25 05:25
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV +4.20%E +1.65%K +2.71%G +0.114%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -12.48%E -8.43%K -25.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-25 05:25
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV +2.16%E +0.863%K +1.44%G +0.031%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -14.25%E -9.83%K -31.67%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-25 05:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%4.1%2026-02-25 05:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%4.1%2026-02-25 05:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%4.9%2026-02-25 05:25