The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Germany v Australia

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Germany (Local)

Prediction 78.65%1.27fair odd
EV +1.46%
Edge +1.13%
Kelly +5.02%
Growth +0.073%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.49%78.06%78.80%81.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.201.181.2986.21%83.49%84.75%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Australia (Visit)

Prediction 21.35%4.68fair odd
EV +8.46%
Edge +1.67%
Kelly +2.07%
Growth +0.176%

assuming max odds 5.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.72%21.94%21.20%27.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.404.354.405.0829.41%23.00%22.73%19.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Germany (Local): 78.65%; Australia (Visit): 21.35%. For Australia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.68. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.46%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.28%EV -7.98%E -6.82%K -46.95%G +0.000%5.08I 19.69%NM 18.72%EV +8.46%E +1.67%K +2.07%G +0.176%5.2%2026-05-03 03:01
SportsBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -7.98%E -6.82%K -46.95%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV +3.55%E +0.733%K +0.923%G +0.033%6.1%2026-05-03 08:54
FanDuel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -7.98%E -6.82%K -46.95%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV +0.351%E +0.075%K +0.095%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 08:55
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.62%E -4.68%K -28.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.92%E -0.871%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 08:45
GTbets🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -7.19%E -6.10%K -39.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -3.92%E -0.871%K -1.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 19:00
Betsson🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.14%EV -8.77%E -7.56%K -54.80%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -6.05%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 08:55
NordicBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.14%EV -8.77%E -7.56%K -54.80%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -6.05%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 08:55
Betway🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -7.19%E -6.10%K -39.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -8.19%E -1.90%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 08:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.05%E -3.32%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.32%E -2.46%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 08:50
Neds🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.05%E -3.32%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.32%E -2.46%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 08:50
PlayUp🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -1.69%E -1.35%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -14.60%E -3.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 08:40
BoyleSports🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -5.62%E -4.68%K -28.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -14.60%E -3.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 20:15
Bet Victor🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV +1.46%E +1.13%K +5.02%G +0.073%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -27.41%E -8.06%K -11.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 08:56
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.