The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Germany v Australia

Kickoff: 2026-05-01 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Germany (Local)

Prediction 88.43%1.13fair odd
EV -3.61%
Edge -3.31%
Kelly -40.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.75%88.43%88.40%91.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.061.051.0995.24%94.02%95.24%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Australia (Visit)

Prediction 11.57%8.64fair odd
EV +24.96%
Edge +2.31%
Kelly +2.55%
Growth +0.636%

assuming max odds 10.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.86%11.57%11.60%14.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.508.358.0010.8015.38%11.98%12.50%9.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Germany (Local): 88.43%; Australia (Visit): 11.57%. For Australia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.64. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.96%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.14%EV -7.15%E -6.81%K -142.98%G +0.000%10.80I 9.26%NM 8.86%EV +24.96%E +2.31%K +2.55%G +0.636%4.5%2026-05-01 13:24
SportsBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -7.15%E -6.81%K -142.98%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV +9.92%E +1.04%K +1.17%G +0.116%5.8%2026-05-01 13:25
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -6.26%E -5.91%K -104.41%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +4.13%E +0.459%K +0.517%G +0.021%5.5%2026-05-01 13:25
Neds🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -7.15%E -6.81%K -142.98%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV +4.13%E +0.459%K +0.517%G +0.021%6.3%2026-05-01 13:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -7.15%E -6.81%K -142.98%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV +4.13%E +0.459%K +0.517%G +0.021%6.3%2026-05-01 13:25
NordicBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -7.15%E -6.81%K -142.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -7.44%E -0.930%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-01 13:24
Betsson🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -7.15%E -6.81%K -142.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -7.44%E -0.930%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-01 13:24
Bet Right🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -3.61%E -3.31%K -40.13%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -13.22%E -1.76%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-01 13:25
PlayUp🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -3.61%E -3.31%K -40.13%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -13.22%E -1.76%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-01 13:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -4.50%E -4.16%K -56.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -19.01%E -2.72%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-01 13:24
Bet Victor🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -4.50%E -4.16%K -56.20%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -24.79%E -3.81%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-01 13:23
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 87.72%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.28%1.8%2026-05-01 13:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 87.72%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.28%1.8%2026-05-01 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 87.16%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.84%2.4%2026-05-01 13:25