Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

France v Turkey

Kickoff: 2026-07-29 11:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

France (Local)

Prediction 94.91%1.05fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -74.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
92.72%94.91%94.91%94.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.021.021.0399.01%98.04%98.04%97.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Turkey (Visit)

Prediction 5.09%19.63fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -0.168%
Kelly -0.178%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 19.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.09%5.09%5.09%7.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0016.0016.0019.007.69%6.25%6.25%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
TAB1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -2.25%E -2.18%K -74.93%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV -13.39%E -0.787%K -0.837%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-29 11:25
FanDuel1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -3.20%E -3.13%K -159.84%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV -3.20%E -0.168%K -0.178%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-29 11:25
Paddy Power1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.20%E -3.13%K -159.84%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -33.77%E -2.60%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-29 11:25
SportsBet1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.15%E -4.10%K -414.59%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -23.58%E -1.57%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-29 11:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81%0.9%2026-07-29 11:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.03I 97.09%NM 94.59%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.41%2.6%2026-07-29 11:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.03I 97.09%NM 94.59%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.41%2.6%2026-07-29 11:25