The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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France v Norway

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

France (Local)

Prediction 46.56%2.15fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -2.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%46.56%46.56%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.032.022.1050.00%49.22%49.50%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Norway (Visit)

Prediction 53.44%1.87fair odd
EV -5.41%
Edge -3.06%
Kelly -7.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%53.44%53.44%54.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.761.771.7757.80%56.87%56.66%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: France (Local): 46.56%; Norway (Visit): 53.44%. For France (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.15. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -2.22%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.22%E -1.06%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.55%E -4.37%K -10.34%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-08 15:54
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.55%E -2.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.95%E -3.38%K -7.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-08 15:49
FanDuel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.46%EV -5.01%E -2.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.54%EV -5.41%E -3.06%K -7.03%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-08 15:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.88%E -3.44%K -6.88%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.41%E -3.06%K -7.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-08 15:50
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.88%E -3.44%K -6.88%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.41%E -3.06%K -7.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-08 15:50
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.88%E -3.44%K -6.88%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.48%E -3.70%K -8.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-09 08:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63%0.8%2026-04-09 08:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63%0.8%2026-04-09 08:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63%0.8%2026-04-09 08:45