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England v Sri Lanka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
England (Local)
Prediction 84.92%1.18fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -2.80%
Kelly -22.79%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.45%84.90%84.87%86.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.111.101.1491.74%90.26%90.91%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sri Lanka (Visit)
Prediction 15.08%6.63fair odd
EV +5.56%
Edge +0.794%
Kelly +0.926%
Growth +0.051%
assuming max odds 7.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.58%15.10%15.13%16.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.486.507.0017.39%15.44%15.38%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 84.92%; Sri Lanka (Visit): 15.08%. For Sri Lanka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.63. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.56%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.59%E -5.99%K -65.87%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +5.56%E +0.794%K +0.926%G +0.051% | 5.2% | 2026-09-17 17:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.59%E -5.99%K -65.87%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +5.56%E +0.794%K +0.926%G +0.051% | 5.2% | 2026-09-17 17:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.59%E -5.99%K -65.87%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +5.56%E +0.794%K +0.926%G +0.051% | 5.2% | 2026-09-17 17:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.59%E -5.99%K -65.87%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +5.56%E +0.794%K +0.926%G +0.051% | 5.2% | 2026-09-17 17:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.59%E -5.99%K -65.87%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +5.56%E +0.794%K +0.926%G +0.051% | 5.2% | 2026-09-17 17:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.59%E -5.99%K -65.87%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +5.56%E +0.794%K +0.926%G +0.051% | 5.2% | 2026-09-17 17:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.59%E -5.99%K -65.87%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +5.56%E +0.794%K +0.926%G +0.051% | 5.2% | 2026-09-17 17:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.36%EV -7.44%E -6.82%K -82.63%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.64%EV +4.05%E +0.587%K +0.686%G +0.028% | 6.2% | 2026-09-17 17:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -5.74%E -5.17%K -52.16%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +1.79%E +0.265%K +0.311%G +0.006% | 4.9% | 2026-09-17 17:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.89%E -4.37%K -40.74%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -1.98%E -0.305%K -0.361%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-17 17:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.74%E -5.17%K -52.16%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -1.98%E -0.305%K -0.361%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-17 17:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.74%E -5.17%K -52.16%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -1.98%E -0.305%K -0.361%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-17 17:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.74%E -5.17%K -52.16%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -1.98%E -0.305%K -0.361%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-17 17:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.74%E -5.17%K -52.16%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -1.98%E -0.305%K -0.361%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-17 17:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.59%E -5.99%K -65.87%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -1.98%E -0.305%K -0.361%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-17 17:13 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.59%E -5.99%K -65.87%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -1.98%E -0.305%K -0.361%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-17 17:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.59%E -5.99%K -65.87%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -1.98%E -0.305%K -0.361%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-17 17:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -6.59%E -5.99%K -65.87%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -3.49%E -0.546%K -0.647%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-17 17:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -6.59%E -5.99%K -65.87%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -3.49%E -0.546%K -0.647%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-17 17:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.87%EV -4.04%E -3.57%K -31.07%G +0.000% | 6.34I 15.77%NM 15.13%EV -4.40%E -0.693%K -0.823%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-17 17:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.04%E -3.57%K -31.07%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -5.75%E -0.921%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-17 17:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.89%E -4.37%K -40.74%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -9.52%E -1.59%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-17 17:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.89%E -4.37%K -40.74%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -9.52%E -1.59%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-17 17:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.89%E -4.37%K -40.74%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -9.52%E -1.59%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-17 10:41 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.89%E -4.37%K -40.74%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -9.52%E -1.59%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-16 13:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.74%E -5.17%K -52.16%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -9.52%E -1.59%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-17 17:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.63%EV -7.44%E -6.82%K -82.63%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -9.52%E -1.59%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-17 17:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.63%EV -7.44%E -6.82%K -82.63%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -9.52%E -1.59%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-17 17:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -3.19%E -2.80%K -22.79%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -13.29%E -2.31%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-16 22:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.62% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38% | 1.0% | 2026-09-17 17:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.62% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38% | 1.0% | 2026-09-17 17:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.62% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38% | 1.0% | 2026-09-17 17:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.62% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38% | 1.0% | 2026-09-17 17:15 |