The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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England v Pakistan

Kickoff: 2026-02-24 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 60.54%1.65fair odd
EV -3.13%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -5.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.97%61.46%60.54%65.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.511.531.6071.43%66.04%65.36%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pakistan (Visit)

Prediction 39.46%2.53fair odd
EV +2.59%
Edge +0.998%
Kelly +1.62%
Growth +0.042%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.00%38.54%39.46%41.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.422.382.6043.48%41.25%42.02%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 60.54%; Pakistan (Visit): 39.46%. For Pakistan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.53. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.59%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.00%EV -15.24%E -10.89%K -38.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV +2.59%E +0.998%K +1.62%G +0.042%9.9%2026-02-24 15:00
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.00%EV -15.24%E -10.89%K -38.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV +2.59%E +0.998%K +1.62%G +0.042%9.9%2026-02-24 14:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -3.74%E -2.35%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -1.75%E -0.701%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-24 15:20
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.37%E -4.82%K -13.91%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.09%E -2.56%K -4.41%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-24 15:15
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.13%E -1.96%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -9.24%E -4.02%K -7.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-24 15:19
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.16%E -3.98%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -9.24%E -4.02%K -7.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-24 15:25
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.37%E -4.82%K -13.91%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -9.24%E -4.02%K -7.11%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-24 15:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.02%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.98%1.8%2026-02-24 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.17%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83%2.2%2026-02-24 15:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.17%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83%2.2%2026-02-24 15:25