The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

England v Pakistan

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 57.14%1.75fair odd
EV -4.57%
Edge -2.74%
Kelly -6.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.76%57.42%57.25%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.601.601.6766.67%62.43%62.50%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pakistan (Visit)

Prediction 42.86%2.33fair odd
EV +7.14%
Edge +2.86%
Kelly +4.76%
Growth +0.340%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.50%42.58%42.75%43.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.242.212.5047.62%44.66%45.25%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 57.14%; Pakistan (Visit): 42.86%. For Pakistan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.33. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -14.28%E -9.52%K -28.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV +7.14%E +2.86%K +4.76%G +0.340%6.7%2026-02-22 01:09
Bet Right🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -8.00%E -4.97%K -13.11%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -0.576%E -0.248%K -0.437%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-22 09:54
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -8.57%E -5.36%K -14.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -1.43%E -0.623%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 09:45
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -10.28%E -6.55%K -18.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -1.43%E -0.623%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 09:50
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -10.28%E -6.55%K -18.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -3.58%E -1.59%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-22 09:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -5.71%E -3.46%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -5.29%E -2.39%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-22 09:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.57%E -2.74%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.72%E -2.60%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-22 09:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.71%E -3.46%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.72%E -2.60%K -4.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 09:55
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -8.57%E -5.36%K -14.28%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.86%E -3.66%K -6.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-22 09:55
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -8.57%E -5.36%K -14.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -10.00%E -4.76%K -9.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-22 09:55
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -8.57%E -5.36%K -14.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -10.00%E -4.76%K -9.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-22 09:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 58.79%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.21%3.7%2026-02-22 09:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 58.79%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.21%3.7%2026-02-22 09:55
Matchbook◎1.64I 60.98%NM 58.79%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.21%3.7%2026-02-22 09:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%4.1%2026-02-22 09:55