Language:English
England v India
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
England (Local)
Prediction 51.49%1.94fair odd
EV -4.23%
Edge -2.28%
Kelly -4.92%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.86
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.94%51.60%51.32%54.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.821.811.8657.80%54.98%55.25%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
India (Visit)
Prediction 48.51%2.06fair odd
EV +1.88%
Edge +0.894%
Kelly +1.71%
Growth +0.032%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%48.40%48.68%49.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.901.971.962.1052.63%50.72%50.89%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 51.49%; India (Visit): 48.51%. For India (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.06. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.88%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -10.93%E -6.32%K -14.97%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV +1.88%E +0.894%K +1.71%G +0.032% | 5.4% | 2026-07-09 16:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -7.32%E -4.07%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -2.00%E -0.992%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-09 16:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.07%EV -4.75%E -2.57%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.93%EV -2.49%E -1.24%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-09 16:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.32%E -4.07%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.97%E -1.49%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-09 13:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.32%E -4.07%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.97%E -1.49%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-09 13:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.32%E -4.07%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.97%E -1.49%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-09 13:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.32%E -4.07%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.97%E -1.49%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-09 13:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.32%E -4.07%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.97%E -1.49%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-09 13:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.32%E -4.07%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.97%E -1.49%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-09 13:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.32%E -4.07%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.97%E -1.49%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-09 12:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.32%E -4.07%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.97%E -1.49%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-09 13:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.32%E -4.07%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.97%E -1.49%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-09 16:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.32%E -4.07%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.97%E -1.49%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-09 11:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.39%EV -7.84%E -4.38%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.61%EV -4.43%E -2.25%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-09 12:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -5.26%E -2.86%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -4.91%E -2.51%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-09 16:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.75%E -2.57%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.40%E -2.77%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-09 16:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.75%E -2.57%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.40%E -2.77%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-09 16:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.75%E -2.57%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.40%E -2.77%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-09 16:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.75%E -2.57%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.40%E -2.77%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-09 16:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -6.29%E -3.46%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -5.40%E -2.77%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-09 16:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.32%E -4.07%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.40%E -2.77%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-09 16:23 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.23%E -2.28%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.88%E -3.03%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-09 16:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -4.75%E -2.57%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -6.37%E -3.30%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-09 16:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -4.75%E -2.57%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -6.37%E -3.30%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-09 16:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -4.75%E -2.57%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -6.37%E -3.30%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-09 16:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.78%E -3.16%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.34%E -3.84%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-09 16:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.78%E -3.16%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.34%E -3.84%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-09 16:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -5.78%E -3.16%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV -7.82%E -4.12%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-09 16:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37% | 0.4% | 2026-07-09 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37% | 0.4% | 2026-07-09 16:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37% | 0.4% | 2026-07-09 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24% | 0.6% | 2026-07-09 16:25 |
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