The School of Odds
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England v India

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 53.86%1.86fair odd
EV -0.898%
Edge -0.488%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%53.78%53.60%55.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.791.801.8458.48%55.84%55.56%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

India (Visit)

Prediction 46.14%2.17fair odd
EV -0.337%
Edge -0.156%
Kelly -0.291%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.62%46.22%46.40%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.012.002.1652.36%49.75%50.00%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet1.84I 54.35%NM 51.45%EV -0.898%E -0.488%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.55%EV -10.03%E -5.14%K -10.55%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-11 13:49
LiveScore Bet1.84I 54.35%NM 51.45%EV -0.898%E -0.488%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.55%EV -10.03%E -5.14%K -10.55%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-11 13:49
Virgin Bet1.84I 54.35%NM 51.45%EV -0.898%E -0.488%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.55%EV -10.03%E -5.14%K -10.55%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-11 13:49
Unibet (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -1.44%E -0.785%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -10.49%E -5.41%K -11.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-11 13:49
LeoVegas (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -1.44%E -0.785%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -10.49%E -5.41%K -11.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-11 13:49
Grosvenor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -1.44%E -0.785%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -10.49%E -5.41%K -11.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-11 13:49
Casumo1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -1.44%E -0.785%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -10.49%E -5.41%K -11.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-11 13:49
ATG (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -1.44%E -0.785%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -10.49%E -5.41%K -11.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-11 13:49
TABtouch1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -1.44%E -0.785%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -10.95%E -5.67%K -11.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-11 13:49
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -1.44%E -0.785%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -11.87%E -6.22%K -13.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-11 13:49
PlayUp1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -1.98%E -1.09%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -7.72%E -3.86%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-11 13:54
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.05%E -1.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.41%E -2.64%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-11 13:54
TAB1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.05%E -1.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.72%E -3.86%K -7.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-11 13:49
Bet Right1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.05%E -1.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.72%E -3.86%K -7.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-11 13:49
Betsson1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.13%E -2.32%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.41%E -2.64%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-11 13:54
NordicBet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.13%E -2.32%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.41%E -2.64%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-11 13:54
Betr (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.67%E -2.64%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.41%E -2.64%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 13:54
Neds1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.67%E -2.64%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.72%E -3.86%K -7.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-11 13:54
Ladbrokes (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.67%E -2.64%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.72%E -3.86%K -7.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-11 13:54
SportsBet1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.21%E -2.96%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.41%E -2.64%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-11 13:54
FanDuel1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -5.21%E -2.96%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -5.87%E -2.88%K -5.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-11 13:55
BetOnline.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -5.75%E -3.28%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -1.72%E -0.808%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-11 00:49
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.75%E -3.28%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.72%E -3.86%K -7.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-11 13:54
Pinnacle1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -6.28%E -3.61%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -0.337%E -0.156%K -0.291%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-11 09:20
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.82%E -3.94%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.11%E -1.48%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 13:54
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.82%E -3.94%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.11%E -1.48%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 20:25
DraftKings1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -7.90%E -4.62%K -11.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -3.11%E -1.48%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-10 19:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.87I 53.48%NM 53.37%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.63%0.2%2026-07-11 13:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 53.37%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.63%0.2%2026-07-11 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00%2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00%0.4%2026-07-11 13:49
Matchbook1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00%2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00%0.4%2026-07-11 13:55