The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cyprus v Finland

Kickoff: 2026-05-08 12:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cyprus (Local)

Prediction 59.21%1.69fair odd
EV -5.26%
Edge -3.29%
Kelly -8.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.21%59.21%59.21%60.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.561.561.6065.36%64.05%64.10%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Finland (Visit)

Prediction 40.79%2.45fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -0.704%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.14%40.79%40.79%40.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.342.352.4144.44%42.76%42.55%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cyprus (Local): 59.21%; Finland (Visit): 40.79%. For Finland (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.41, with an expected value of -1.70%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.26%E -3.29%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.14%E -1.76%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-08 12:14
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.04%E -4.48%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.92%E -1.23%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-08 12:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.04%E -4.48%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.14%E -1.76%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 12:14
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.04%E -4.48%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.14%E -1.76%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 12:14
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.86%EV -8.22%E -5.31%K -14.95%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.14%EV -1.70%E -0.704%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 12:19
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -8.22%E -5.31%K -14.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -8.22%E -3.65%K -6.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 12:14
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -8.22%E -5.31%K -14.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -8.22%E -3.65%K -6.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 12:14
GTbets🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -9.41%E -6.15%K -17.75%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -3.33%E -1.40%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 12:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%0.7%2026-05-08 12:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%3.4%2026-05-08 12:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 62.44%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.56%4.0%2026-05-08 12:24