The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cyprus v Finland

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 12:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cyprus (Local)

Prediction 32.86%3.04fair odd
EV -0.766%
Edge -0.254%
Kelly -0.379%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.21%32.86%32.86%39.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.372.802.873.0242.19%35.68%34.90%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Finland (Visit)

Prediction 67.14%1.49fair odd
EV +2.73%
Edge +1.78%
Kelly +5.14%
Growth +0.140%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.77%67.14%67.14%68.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.401.391.5373.53%71.30%71.94%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cyprus (Local): 32.86%; Finland (Visit): 67.14%. For Finland (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.49. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.53, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -22.12%E -9.34%K -16.15%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV +2.73%E +1.78%K +5.14%G +0.140%7.6%2026-05-09 11:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.71%E -1.62%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.00%E -4.29%K -15.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 12:24
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.71%E -1.62%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.00%E -4.29%K -15.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 12:24
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -5.37%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.00%E -4.29%K -15.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 12:24
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -9.64%E -3.50%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -7.35%E -5.32%K -19.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 12:25
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -9.64%E -3.50%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -7.35%E -5.32%K -19.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 12:24
SportsBet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -0.766%E -0.254%K -0.379%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -8.02%E -5.85%K -21.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 12:24
Betway🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -6.35%E -2.23%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -8.69%E -6.39%K -24.13%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-09 12:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22%1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78%1.8%2026-05-09 12:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22%1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78%1.8%2026-05-09 12:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22%1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78%1.8%2026-05-09 12:24