The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Brazil v Panama

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brazil (Local)

Prediction 66.34%1.51fair odd
EV -4.47%
Edge -3.11%
Kelly -10.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.63%66.34%66.34%67.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.411.401.4471.43%70.82%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Panama (Visit)

Prediction 33.66%2.97fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.71%33.66%33.66%34.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.782.752.8837.04%36.00%36.36%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brazil (Local): 66.34%; Panama (Visit): 33.66%. For Panama (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.97. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.88, with an expected value of -3.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.47%E -3.11%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.43%E -2.70%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-09 17:50
FanDuel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.82%EV -5.80%E -4.08%K -13.81%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.18%EV -3.73%E -1.30%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-09 17:55
SportsBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.13%E -5.09%K -17.82%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -3.05%E -1.06%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 17:55
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.13%E -5.09%K -17.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -9.11%E -3.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-09 17:54
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.13%E -5.09%K -17.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -9.11%E -3.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-09 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 51.16%1.10I 90.91%NM 48.84%86.1%2026-08-09 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 51.16%1.10I 90.91%NM 48.84%86.1%2026-08-09 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 51.16%1.10I 90.91%NM 48.84%86.1%2026-08-09 17:50