The School of Odds
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Botswana v Sierra Leone

2026-09-18 11:30 UTC — International Twenty20

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Botswana (Local)

Prediction 74.78%1.34fair odd
EV -5.03%
Edge -3.96%
Kelly -18.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.68%74.78%74.78%76.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.251.251.2780.65%79.79%80.00%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sierra Leone (Visit)

Prediction 25.22%3.97fair odd
EV -0.380%
Edge -0.096%
Kelly -0.129%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.89%25.22%25.22%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.723.673.9528.57%26.91%27.21%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Botswana (Local): 74.78%; Sierra Leone (Visit): 25.22%. For Sierra Leone (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.97. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.95, with an expected value of -0.380%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.03%E -3.96%K -18.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 15:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.03%E -3.96%K -18.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 15:19
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.53%E -5.22%K -26.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.42%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-17 15:21
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.53%E -5.22%K -26.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-17 15:30
SportsBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -7.27%E -5.87%K -30.30%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -0.380%E -0.096%K -0.129%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-17 15:20
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -7.27%E -5.87%K -30.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -1.64%E -0.421%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-17 15:26
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%9.7%2026-09-17 18:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%9.7%2026-09-17 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.22I 81.97%NM 74.15%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%10.5%2026-09-17 18:55