The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Bhutan v Bahrain

Kickoff: 2026-02-25 06:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bhutan (Local)

Prediction 12.25%8.16fair odd
EV +24.93%
Edge +2.44%
Kelly +2.71%
Growth +0.675%

assuming max odds 10.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.41%12.00%12.28%15.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.807.5010.2016.00%12.82%13.33%9.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bahrain (Visit)

Prediction 87.75%1.14fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -23.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.92%88.00%87.72%90.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.081.081.1195.24%92.92%92.59%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bhutan (Local): 12.25%; Bahrain (Visit): 87.75%. For Bhutan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.16. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.93%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯10.20I 9.80%NM 9.41%EV +24.93%E +2.44%K +2.71%G +0.675%1.06I 94.34%NM 90.59%EV -6.98%E -6.59%K -116.38%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-25 06:24
Neds🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +10.23%E +1.14%K +1.28%G +0.131%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -6.98%E -6.59%K -116.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-25 06:20
Paddy Power🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +10.23%E +1.14%K +1.28%G +0.131%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -6.98%E -6.59%K -116.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-25 06:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +4.11%E +0.483%K +0.548%G +0.022%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -6.98%E -6.59%K -116.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-25 06:25
BoyleSports🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -2.02%E -0.252%K -0.288%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.98%E -6.59%K -116.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-24 13:14
BetOnline.ag🎯7.86I 12.72%NM 11.98%EV -3.73%E -0.475%K -0.544%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.02%EV -6.11%E -5.71%K -87.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-24 11:28
PointsBet (AU)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -8.14%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.35%E -3.99%K -48.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-25 06:25
Bet Right🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -8.14%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.35%E -3.99%K -48.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-25 06:25
PlayUp🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -8.14%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.35%E -3.99%K -48.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-25 06:20
DraftKings🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -8.14%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.23%E -4.84%K -65.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-25 05:15
Everygame🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -8.14%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.23%E -4.84%K -65.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-24 20:00
Betway🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -8.14%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 87.72%EV -7.86%E -7.49%K -157.20%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-25 06:23
Betr (AU)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -14.27%E -2.04%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -4.35%E -3.99%K -48.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-25 06:20
TAB🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -14.27%E -2.04%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -4.35%E -3.99%K -48.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-25 02:05
888sport🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -14.27%E -2.04%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.23%E -4.84%K -65.35%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-24 19:55
SportsBet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -23.45%E -3.75%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -2.60%E -2.34%K -23.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-24 14:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60%1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40%1.0%2026-02-25 06:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎15.00I 6.67%NM 6.54%1.05I 95.24%NM 93.46%1.9%2026-02-25 06:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎15.00I 6.67%NM 6.54%1.05I 95.24%NM 93.46%1.9%2026-02-25 06:25
Matchbook◎15.00I 6.67%NM 6.54%1.05I 95.24%NM 93.46%1.9%2026-02-25 06:25