The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Bangladesh v New Zealand

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 08:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bangladesh (Local)

Prediction 54.87%1.82fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -2.27%
Kelly -5.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.62%55.21%54.83%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.711.721.7561.73%58.36%58.14%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand (Visit)

Prediction 45.13%2.22fair odd
EV +1.54%
Edge +0.687%
Kelly +1.24%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.86%44.79%45.17%46.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.112.122.2550.00%47.33%47.17%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bangladesh (Local): 54.87%; New Zealand (Visit): 45.13%. For New Zealand (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.54%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -11.11%E -6.86%K -17.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV +1.54%E +0.687%K +1.24%G +0.019%6.2%2026-05-02 07:55
GTbets🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -11.11%E -6.86%K -17.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV +1.54%E +0.687%K +1.24%G +0.019%6.2%2026-05-02 07:56
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.37%E -5.01%K -12.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.712%E -0.324%K -0.593%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 07:35
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.01%EV -5.63%E -3.27%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.99%EV -1.16%E -0.531%K -0.977%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-02 07:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.53%E -2.60%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.97%E -1.38%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-02 07:50
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -4.32%E -2.04%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 07:50
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -4.32%E -2.04%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 07:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -4.32%E -2.04%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 07:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -4.32%E -2.04%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 07:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -4.32%E -2.04%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 07:50
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -4.32%E -2.04%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 07:50
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -4.32%E -2.04%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 07:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -4.32%E -2.04%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 07:50
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -4.32%E -2.04%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 07:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -4.32%E -2.04%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 07:50
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.98%E -2.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.22%E -2.49%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-02 07:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.08%E -2.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.22%E -2.49%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 07:45
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.08%E -2.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.22%E -2.49%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 07:45
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.08%E -2.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.22%E -2.49%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 07:50
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.98%E -2.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.13%E -2.95%K -5.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 07:56
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.98%E -2.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.13%E -2.95%K -5.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 07:56
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.53%E -2.60%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -6.13%E -2.95%K -5.67%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 07:50
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -5.63%E -3.27%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -6.13%E -2.95%K -5.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 07:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.98%E -2.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.48%E -3.65%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 07:50
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.98%E -2.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.48%E -3.65%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 07:50
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.98%E -2.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.48%E -3.65%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 07:56
Betr (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.08%E -2.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.48%E -3.65%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 07:56
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.08%E -2.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.74%E -4.87%K -9.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 07:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41%0.1%2026-05-02 07:56
Matchbook◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41%0.1%2026-05-02 07:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%0.5%2026-05-02 07:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%0.5%2026-05-02 07:55