The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Australia v Turkey

Kickoff: 2026-07-25 11:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Australia (Local)

Prediction 90.15%1.11fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -2.45%
Kelly -33.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
87.41%90.15%90.15%91.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.051.051.0896.15%94.98%95.24%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Turkey (Visit)

Prediction 9.85%10.15fair odd
EV +8.40%
Edge +0.763%
Kelly +0.840%
Growth +0.071%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.71%9.85%9.85%12.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.4310.0011.0013.33%10.61%10.00%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Australia (Local): 90.15%; Turkey (Visit): 9.85%. For Turkey (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.15. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -5.35%E -5.09%K -106.94%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +8.40%E +0.763%K +0.840%G +0.071%4.3%2026-07-25 11:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.35%E -5.09%K -106.94%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -1.46%E -0.146%K -0.162%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-25 11:20
Neds🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.35%E -5.09%K -106.94%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -1.46%E -0.146%K -0.162%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-25 11:19
SportsBet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.25%E -6.01%K -156.21%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -1.46%E -0.146%K -0.162%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-25 11:20
Paddy Power🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.35%E -5.09%K -106.94%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-25 11:20
BoyleSports🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -5.35%E -5.09%K -106.94%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -16.24%E -1.91%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-24 13:40
TAB🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -2.64%E -2.45%K -33.03%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -26.09%E -3.48%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-25 02:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 92.66%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.34%0.9%2026-07-25 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 92.66%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.34%0.9%2026-07-25 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 92.66%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.34%0.9%2026-07-25 11:25

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