The School of Odds
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Trinbago Knight Riders v Antigua & Barbuda Falcons

Kickoff: 2026-09-02 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Trinbago Knight Riders (Local)

Prediction 65.75%1.52fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -4.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.56%65.47%65.75%67.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.411.401.4971.43%70.67%71.43%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Antigua & Barbuda Falcons (Visit)

Prediction 34.25%2.92fair odd
EV +1.05%
Edge +0.356%
Kelly +0.538%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.18%34.53%34.25%37.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.492.882.952.9540.16%34.73%33.90%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Trinbago Knight Riders (Local): 65.75%; Antigua & Barbuda Falcons (Visit): 34.25%. For Antigua & Barbuda Falcons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.92. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.05%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +1.05%E +0.356%K +0.538%G +0.006%5.3%2026-09-02 22:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +1.05%E +0.356%K +0.538%G +0.006%5.3%2026-09-02 22:54
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +1.05%E +0.356%K +0.538%G +0.006%5.3%2026-09-02 22:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +1.05%E +0.356%K +0.538%G +0.006%5.3%2026-09-02 22:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +1.05%E +0.356%K +0.538%G +0.006%5.3%2026-09-02 22:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +1.05%E +0.356%K +0.538%G +0.006%5.3%2026-09-02 22:55
TABtouch🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +1.05%E +0.356%K +0.538%G +0.006%5.3%2026-09-02 22:55
Casumo🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +1.05%E +0.356%K +0.538%G +0.006%5.3%2026-09-02 22:54
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +1.05%E +0.356%K +0.538%G +0.006%5.3%2026-09-02 22:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +1.05%E +0.356%K +0.538%G +0.006%5.3%2026-09-02 22:55
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.59%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.41%EV -1.69%E -0.589%K -0.904%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-02 22:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.59%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.41%EV -1.69%E -0.589%K -0.904%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-02 22:55
SportsBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -7.30%E -5.18%K -17.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -2.38%E -0.834%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 22:55
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.67%E -3.22%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 22:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.61%EV -7.30%E -5.18%K -17.80%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.39%EV -7.86%E -2.92%K -4.65%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 22:55
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.56%EV -2.04%E -1.37%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.44%EV -14.71%E -5.91%K -9.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-02 22:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-09-02 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-09-02 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.8%2026-09-02 22:55