The School of Odds
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Saint Lucia Kings v Barbados Tridents

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 23:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Saint Lucia Kings (Local)

Prediction 38.73%2.58fair odd
EV +1.47%
Edge +0.562%
Kelly +0.909%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.94%38.77%38.73%41.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.272.492.482.6244.05%40.11%40.32%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Barbados Tridents (Visit)

Prediction 61.27%1.63fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -5.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.96%61.23%61.27%64.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.531.541.5868.03%65.39%64.94%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Saint Lucia Kings (Local): 38.73%; Barbados Tridents (Visit): 61.27%. For Saint Lucia Kings (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.58. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.62, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.47%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV +1.47%E +0.562%K +0.909%G +0.013%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -8.10%E -5.40%K -16.19%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-16 22:34
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV +1.47%E +0.562%K +0.909%G +0.013%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -8.10%E -5.40%K -16.19%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-16 22:34
SportsBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.94%EV +1.47%E +0.562%K +0.909%G +0.013%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.06%EV -9.93%E -6.76%K -21.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 22:50
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +0.698%E +0.269%K +0.436%G +0.003%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -8.10%E -5.40%K -16.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-16 22:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -3.95%E -1.59%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.64%E -3.67%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 22:49
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -3.95%E -1.59%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.64%E -3.67%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 22:50
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -3.95%E -1.59%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.64%E -3.67%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 22:49
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -3.95%E -1.59%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.64%E -3.67%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 22:49
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -3.95%E -1.59%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.64%E -3.67%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 22:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -3.95%E -1.59%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.64%E -3.67%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 22:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -3.95%E -1.59%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.64%E -3.67%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 22:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -3.95%E -1.59%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.64%E -3.67%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 22:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -3.95%E -1.59%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.64%E -3.67%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 22:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 37.91%EV -5.50%E -2.25%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.09%EV -8.71%E -5.84%K -17.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-16 22:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.81%E -2.42%K -6.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-16 22:54
Pinnacle🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.04%EV -12.08%E -5.32%K -9.51%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -3.19%E -2.02%K -5.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 20:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%0.6%2026-08-16 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%0.6%2026-08-16 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09%0.7%2026-08-16 22:55